|Cost to Waiting: Housing is poised to get hotter next year, setting the stage for appreciation. Disneyland is known as “The Happiest Place on Earth.” Yet, sometimes the amusement park can be so crowded. The lines for Space Mountain are often the longest. So many people take a look at the length of the line and turn around claiming that they will try to wait for the perfect time. They rationalize that the evening will be much better after a ton of families with little kids leave for the day. To their dismay, after returning to check the line in the evening, the line has not changed. In fact, it is a little bit longer. Was it because of the warm evening? Did all these people in line try to time the line too?
• The active listing inventory decreased by 387 homes in the past two-weeks, down 7%, and now totals 5,534, its lowest level since May 2018. Last year, there were 7,218 homes on the market, 1,684 more than today, or an extra 30%.
• Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, increased by 53 pending sales in the past twoweeks, up 2%, and now totals 2,328. Last year, there were 1,776 pending sales, 24% fewer than today.
• The Expected Market Time for all of Orange County dropped from 78 days to 71, a slight Seller’s Market (between 60 to 90 days). It was at 122 days last year and climbing, completely different than today.
• For homes priced below $750,000, the market is a hot Seller’s Market (less than 60 days) with an expected market time of 48 days. This range represents 38% of the active inventory and 56% of demand.
• For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 58 days, also a hot Seller’s Market. This range represents 18% of the active inventory and 22% of demand.
• For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 81 days, a slight Seller’s Market.
• For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, in the past two weeks, the Expected Market Time decreased from 93 to 79 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 159 to 127 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 317 to 304 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 825 to 609 days.
• The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 35% of the inventory and only 14% of demand.
• Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, made up only 1% of all listings and 1.4% of demand. There are only 23 foreclosures and 31 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, 54 total distressed homes on the active market, identical to two weeks ago. Last year there were 78 total distressed homes on the market, slightly more than today.
• There were 2,582 closed residential resales in October, 11% more than October 2018’s 2,334 closed sales. September marked a 1% increase compared to September 2019. The sales to list price ratio was 97.3% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.5% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.5%. That means that 99% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.